The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a preferred Wall Street metric to measure investor sentiment and market risk, dropped by over 45% in under a month. For Bitcoin (BTC), this could be a significant bullish signal.
VIX daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin may rise toward $82,700 if VIX keeps underperforming.BTCâs upside outlook gets a boost from Strategyâs BTC buying spree.
Weakening VIX hints at BTC rising to $82,700
Often called Wall Streetâs âfear gauge,â the VIX tracks how much volatility traders expect in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days.
When the index rises, it usually signals rising stress and risk aversion across markets. When it falls, it suggests investors are becoming more comfortable owning riskier assets such as stocks and crypto.
History suggests that a VIX drop of 40% or more is bullish for Bitcoin.
For instance, BTC rallied approximately 40% during April 2025âMay 2025, with its gains aligning with the VIXâs 70% dip.
BTC/USD and VIX daily chart. Source: TradingView
Similarly, a 46% VIX drop during the OctoberâNovember 2025 period coincided with a 12% BTC gain.
Even the recent 42%â47% VIX decline has coincided with an 8%â9% BTC price rebound, improving the bullish backdrop for Bitcoin in the coming days.
BTCâs next upside target appears to be around the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line) at around $82,700 by early May.
What happens to Bitcoin if VIX starts rising?
A rising VIX is typically bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, that correlation broke briefly in March, according to a chart highlighted by wealth management firm Swissblock.
BTC and VIX rose in tandem during the USâIran escalation in March. In comparison, the broader risk market, including US equities, underperformed.
Bitcoin and VIX performance comparison. Source: Swissblock
One potential catalyst behind Bitcoinâs resilience may have been Strategyâs aggressive BTC buying, which has absorbed the equivalent to nearly 30 weeks of new coin supply since March.
Related: Saylor teases ‘bigger’ BTC buy days after floating semi-monthly dividends
âBitcoin has already shown inherent strength in a very complex environmentâ, Swissblock said, adding:
âDo not be surprised if it starts to outperform on its own again.â
Nonetheless, any slowdown in Strategyâs buying could weaken Bitcoinâs support during periods of rising VIX, increasing the risk of downside.
Multiple analyses suggest BTC may drop below $50,000 in 2026.
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